Post by labontefanboy on Jun 29, 2014 16:25:45 GMT -5
Consistency triumphing over flashiness, victories in '07
One race away from the midpoint of the 2007 NASCAR Nextel Cup Series season, one thing is clear about this year's campaign: winning, much to Brian France's disappointment, is not everything. Find that hard to believe? Just take a look at the points standings. Of the top 5 in points, only Brian Vickers atop the standings has even recorded a single victory in the 17 races. Ryan Newman did claim the million-dollar prize with his All-Star victory, but in points races, he only has top 5s and top 10s to show. 2nd through 5th have gotten there solely on having consistency, and fast cars week in, week out.
It's certainly hard to argue that of the drivers ranked 2nd through 5th, none of them will claim a victory. Kyle Busch, in 2nd, still is searching for his first career win, but has dominated the last two races only to fall short late. Ryan Newman in 3rd already has the non-points victory, and while he did go winless last year, both of his teammates have gone to Victory Lane already in 2007. In 4th is Jeff Burton, who led the series with 6 wins last year after posting 2 more in '05. It's hard to imagine that he wouldn't get another win, either. And 5th belongs to Clint Bowyer, who got 2 wins as a rookie in 2006 and leads the series with 3 poles this year. That speed will translate into victories soon enough.
But how come the drivers with wins aren't up near the top of the standings? It all goes back to consistency. Excluding the injured Kurt Busch, the drivers with a victory outside the top 5 in points average 4.375 DNFs on the season. Aside from Joe Nemechek and Jeff Gordon, who have recorded 3 DNFs, each of the remaining 6 drivers in the category have recorded 4 or more DNFs. And it seems like having more than one victory leads to more DNFs. Tony Stewart leads the series with 4 wins but also has 4 DNFs and ranks 7th in points. Casey Mears has 2 wins to go with 5 DNFs and sits 9th. Gordon is the exception, with 2 wins and just 3 DNFs, but he is still 13th in points. And Matt Kenseth has really suffered from a lack of consistency, particularly of late. He earned 2 wins in the first 3 races and added one more in the 12th race of the season, but has 5 DNFs, dropping him all the way to 15th, already 169 points outside the Chase. Of course, you can't tell Travis Kvapil that the more wins you get, the more DNFs you'll record. He only has one win this season, in the most recent race, but has an astounding 7 DNFs. That inconsistency pretty much sums up why he's 140 points out of the Chase in 14th.
Compare those DNF number to the guys that are winless, but 2nd through 5th in points. Kyle Busch and Bowyer have failed to finish in just 2 races each, while Newman has 3 DNFs and Burton has 4. Burton and Bowyer both, however, tie for 2nd most top 10 finishes with 9, way behind Vickers' torrid pace of 14 top 10s in 17 races. But another stat that shows how these guys have jumped ahead of many of this season's winners is the ratio of top 10 finishes per top 5 finish. Basically, the drivers 2nd through 5th, when not finishing in the top 5 in a race, still manage to finish in the top 10 on a much more consistent basis than the winners ranked below them. Busch has a ratio of 8:4 (top 10s:top 5s), Newman has 8:6, and both RCR teammates of Burton and Bowyer have 9:4. On average for those four, that's about 1.96 top 10s for every top 5 finish. Now, look at the winners ranked 6th through 15th. Edwards-8:7, Stewart-5:5, Mears-5:5, Biffle-7:4, Nemechek-8:5, Gordon-6:4, Kvapil-7:3, and Kenseth-5:4. Only Kvapil has a top 10/top 5 ratio greater than the average of the guys 2nd through 5th. Obviously, you can definitely see how those 7 DNFs factor in. (By the way, the average of the winners from 6th through 15th is 1.45. Yeah, that's a big difference.)
So despite Brian France's repeated proclamations that he really, really wants winning to be more emphasized and wants drivers to be more gutsy on the track, the stats don't lie. This year, at least, it seems that winning is definitely not everything. The guys who've not gambled on pit strategy or made wild, gutsy 3-wide passes to go for the win are seeing it pay off in the standings. Whether or not that will change remains to be seen, although it's fairly likely those winless drivers will visit Victory Lane at some point this season. However, at the midway point of the 2007 season, it's quite possible we could see a winless driver take the Championship. (FoxSports.com) (7/6/07)
One race away from the midpoint of the 2007 NASCAR Nextel Cup Series season, one thing is clear about this year's campaign: winning, much to Brian France's disappointment, is not everything. Find that hard to believe? Just take a look at the points standings. Of the top 5 in points, only Brian Vickers atop the standings has even recorded a single victory in the 17 races. Ryan Newman did claim the million-dollar prize with his All-Star victory, but in points races, he only has top 5s and top 10s to show. 2nd through 5th have gotten there solely on having consistency, and fast cars week in, week out.
It's certainly hard to argue that of the drivers ranked 2nd through 5th, none of them will claim a victory. Kyle Busch, in 2nd, still is searching for his first career win, but has dominated the last two races only to fall short late. Ryan Newman in 3rd already has the non-points victory, and while he did go winless last year, both of his teammates have gone to Victory Lane already in 2007. In 4th is Jeff Burton, who led the series with 6 wins last year after posting 2 more in '05. It's hard to imagine that he wouldn't get another win, either. And 5th belongs to Clint Bowyer, who got 2 wins as a rookie in 2006 and leads the series with 3 poles this year. That speed will translate into victories soon enough.
But how come the drivers with wins aren't up near the top of the standings? It all goes back to consistency. Excluding the injured Kurt Busch, the drivers with a victory outside the top 5 in points average 4.375 DNFs on the season. Aside from Joe Nemechek and Jeff Gordon, who have recorded 3 DNFs, each of the remaining 6 drivers in the category have recorded 4 or more DNFs. And it seems like having more than one victory leads to more DNFs. Tony Stewart leads the series with 4 wins but also has 4 DNFs and ranks 7th in points. Casey Mears has 2 wins to go with 5 DNFs and sits 9th. Gordon is the exception, with 2 wins and just 3 DNFs, but he is still 13th in points. And Matt Kenseth has really suffered from a lack of consistency, particularly of late. He earned 2 wins in the first 3 races and added one more in the 12th race of the season, but has 5 DNFs, dropping him all the way to 15th, already 169 points outside the Chase. Of course, you can't tell Travis Kvapil that the more wins you get, the more DNFs you'll record. He only has one win this season, in the most recent race, but has an astounding 7 DNFs. That inconsistency pretty much sums up why he's 140 points out of the Chase in 14th.
Compare those DNF number to the guys that are winless, but 2nd through 5th in points. Kyle Busch and Bowyer have failed to finish in just 2 races each, while Newman has 3 DNFs and Burton has 4. Burton and Bowyer both, however, tie for 2nd most top 10 finishes with 9, way behind Vickers' torrid pace of 14 top 10s in 17 races. But another stat that shows how these guys have jumped ahead of many of this season's winners is the ratio of top 10 finishes per top 5 finish. Basically, the drivers 2nd through 5th, when not finishing in the top 5 in a race, still manage to finish in the top 10 on a much more consistent basis than the winners ranked below them. Busch has a ratio of 8:4 (top 10s:top 5s), Newman has 8:6, and both RCR teammates of Burton and Bowyer have 9:4. On average for those four, that's about 1.96 top 10s for every top 5 finish. Now, look at the winners ranked 6th through 15th. Edwards-8:7, Stewart-5:5, Mears-5:5, Biffle-7:4, Nemechek-8:5, Gordon-6:4, Kvapil-7:3, and Kenseth-5:4. Only Kvapil has a top 10/top 5 ratio greater than the average of the guys 2nd through 5th. Obviously, you can definitely see how those 7 DNFs factor in. (By the way, the average of the winners from 6th through 15th is 1.45. Yeah, that's a big difference.)
So despite Brian France's repeated proclamations that he really, really wants winning to be more emphasized and wants drivers to be more gutsy on the track, the stats don't lie. This year, at least, it seems that winning is definitely not everything. The guys who've not gambled on pit strategy or made wild, gutsy 3-wide passes to go for the win are seeing it pay off in the standings. Whether or not that will change remains to be seen, although it's fairly likely those winless drivers will visit Victory Lane at some point this season. However, at the midway point of the 2007 season, it's quite possible we could see a winless driver take the Championship. (FoxSports.com) (7/6/07)